26th June 2024

Exclusive search data predicts a landslide Labour victory, with a 40% share of votes this election – 25% more than 2019 

Google searches are a more accurate reflection of what we really think than a poll or a survey, and since MediaVision has access to the largest database of search demand on the market via our Metis platform, we used it to predict who’ll win the UK General Election next week – and by how much.   

  • Share of votes for labour are predicted to increase by 8% on July 4th, according to our expert search data analysts  
  • Conservatives forecasted to lose more than half their share of votes since the last election, down to 20% this year from 44% in 2019  
  • Reform UK set to be hot on the Tories’ tail, with search data predicting a share of vote outcome of 16%  

Web searches reveal a window into our secret psychology. People might think one thing and say another in a poll, but the things we search for online are a glimpse into our private thoughts. So, with people confiding in search engines to explore and solidify their voting intentions in the lead-up to the general election, we decided to have some fun.      

We overlaid 12 months’ worth of search and voting intention data and used machine learning to predict the results. The search data comes from Metis, the largest database of consumer demand on the market that provides weekly insights into search, and the Voting Intention data comes from YouGov.   

Predicting a winner

Share of votes from 2019 are sourced from Statista. Share of votes predicted for the 2024 election are sourced from Metis using search data.

Here’s another view

Our forecast suggests the Labour Party will be the clear and decisive winner of the 2024 General Election, capturing a 40% vote share, with the Conservative Party behind at 20%. This represents a significant change from the last general election, with the Conservative Party losing more than half their share of votes since the previous election.  

The rise of Reform UK is probably one of the most interesting trends we found. Having experienced a tremendous spike in search demand weeks before the election, Reform UK grew its share of votes by 16%—twice that of the Labour Party, which we predict will grow its share by just 8%.  

This confirms the narrative that much of the Conservative Party’s voter base from the 2019 election has defected to Reform UK, splitting the right-leaning vote and potentially widening the gap between right and left. 

 

Search demand (solid line) vs voting intention (bar graph), with the dotted line in July showing our predicted drop off in interest for Reform UK

This result illuminates an exciting new way to predict election outcomes, proving that search demand can provide context and insight into significant moments in time, not just consumer behaviour.  

Louis Venter, MediaVision CEO and inventor of Metis, says, “We’ve seen countless times how search data reveals sentiment and trends more accurately than polls or surveys. We saw it with the Trump effect, where voters reluctant to express their support out loud voted in his favour, while search demand reflected rising interest. Using our large dataset, which updates weekly, we’ve been able to track interest around UK political parties on a granular level, and the results speak for themselves’.  

Meet Metis, our multi-award-winning platform (and election predictor)

Metis is a multi-award-winning platform market demand tracker that uses pioneering technology to connect complex insights and deliver transformative growth for businesses. 

It’s a multi-award-winning platform that’s used by businesses in a multitude of industries that span from fashion & ecommerce to commercial and residential property. 

Metis is constantly in development. It’s malleable and bespoke in nature, making it agile enough to have multiple use cases—like predicting an election or, in many cases, better understanding where the opportunities lie for businesses within the wider market context. To see what it can do for your business or book a demo, please get in touch

Methodology 

We took 12 months’ worth of YouGov voting intention data, overlaid with politics-related consumer search data from Metis. We then used machine learning to interpret this data and forecast the results of the UK general election, giving us a clear picture of the share of votes each party would receive. Please note all percentages have been rounded to the nearest 10.

 

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